reduced to the lowest possible
amount and that trans-Atlantic trade will practically come to an
end. The result of such a stoppage will be a panic in the United
States. The world will therefore be divided into two hemispheres,
one of them, our own, will have the gold and the commodities; the
other, Great Britain and Europe, will need these commodities, but
it will have no money with which to pay for them. Moreover, it will
have practically no commodities of its own to exchange for them.
The financial and commercial result will be almost as bad for the
United States as for Europe. We shall soon reach this condition
unless we take quick action to prevent it. Great Britain and France
must have a credit in the United States which will be large enough
to prevent the collapse of world trade and the whole financial
structure of Europe.

If the United States declare war against Germany, the greatest help
we could give Great Britain and its Allies would be such a credit.
If we should adopt this policy, an excellent plan would be for our
Government to make a large investment in a Franco-British loan.
Another plan would be to guarantee such a loan. A great advantage
would be that all the money would be kept in the United States. We
could keep on with our trade and increase it, till the war ends,
and after the war Europe would purchase food and an enormous supply
of materials with which to reequip her peace industries. We should
thus reap the profit of an uninterrupted and perhaps an enlarging
trade over a number of years and we should hold their securities in
payment.

On the other hand, if we keep nearly all the gold and Europe cannot
pay for reestablishing its economic life, there may be a world-wide
panic for an indefinite period.

Of course we cannot extend such a credit unless we go to war with
Germany. But is there no way in which our Government might
immediately and indirectly help the establishment in the United
States of a large Franco-British credit without violating armed
neutrality? I do not know enough about our own reserve bank law to
form an opinion. But these banks would avert such a danger if they
were able to establish such a credit. Danger for us is more real
and imminent, I think, than the public on either side the Atlantic
un