rts of foodstuffs have fallen off greatly, and the
supply in this country has actually declined in proportion to
population. There has been also a most marked increase in the exports of
manufactured goods and a decided increase in the importation of raw
materials, including foodstuffs. Now will come an enormous demand from
Europe for the very things of which we have not produced so much and
exported little or nothing--bacon, eggs, butter, beef. The demand will
also be greatly increased for woolen cloth, raw leather, shoes, steel
in all its forms, railroad equipment of all sorts, automobiles and
machinery, and, in particular, coal and gasoline. To supply this demand
old industries will be expanded and new ones created, and a shift of
capital and labor will inevitably take place to the industries for which
a demand becomes clear in Europe, as soon as it seems reasonably certain
that the war will last, beyond the present year.

An American Merchant Marine.

Above all, an American merchant marine is likely to be seen again upon
the seas. There will be German ships in plenty for sale, in all
probability, unless Germany wins an immediate victory on the sea, and
the advantage of an unquestioned neutral status, easily obtained by a
bona-fide purchase, will be so great that American capital will probably
invest largely in freight steamers and ocean liners. It seems entirely
unlikely that England, while she remains mistress of the seas, should
recognize as valid the registration in the United States of vessels
actually owned by belligerents or regard as anything more than
masquerading their appearance under the American flag. England has never
recognized any one's "right" to do anything at sea in time of war which
did not accrue directly to her own benefit. It is scarcely necessary to
say that she will not allow trade with Germany or Austria while she can
prevent it. The only refuge will be the sale of the ship by the foreign
owner to Americans who will trade with England, her allies, and strictly
neutral nations. As always in time of war, privateering and smuggling
will be profitable, and trade with Germany, unless she is immediately
victorious at sea, will offer to the adventurous plenty of risk and the
certainty of huge profits. During the Napoleonic wars the flats and bars
of the German coast along the North Sea offered light vessels a great
opportunity and the pursuing warships great obstacles. A modern
motor-driven light