uld
completely destroy its commerce and shut off its overseas supplies.

In the cases of most nations overseas supplies include material vital
to the continuance of life and happiness; to every nation, in these days
of a developed and habitual foreign trade, overseas supplies are
actually essential, even when they do not necessarily include meats and
wheat and other foodstuffs.

The effect upon the United States of such an English victory would be
most disastrous.

The alliance between England and Japan is likely to be permanent. That
is something which Americans cannot afford to forget for a moment.

England needs Japan in the Far East, especially as an ally in case of
need, which at some time is certain to arrive, against Russia; and Japan
for many reasons needs the strength of English backing, without which
her financial and political situation soon would become most dangerous,
if not collapse.

Such a permanent alliance would have this consequence upon us, that
without even the probability of difficulties with either England or
Japan--and, personally, I do not believe that such a probability need be
feared--we nevertheless year after year would be compelled to
increasingly prepare for what may be defined as the disagreeable
possibility of the eventuation of a disagreeable possibility.

Certainly we should be under the necessity of notably and, therefore,
very expensively, increasing our naval armament; we should be under the
necessity of large expenditures for coast defense.

Corollary military cost would be enormous and burdensome. The
preparation which would be imposed on us as a necessity by such a
permanent alliance would be sufficiently extensive and expensive to
burden our people heavily and handicap our national progress.

It might involve, perhaps, even a greater hardship in our case than
militarism has involved in Germany. It is improbable that the average
American realizes the part which absence of such burdens has played in
our national development so far; it would be difficult for the average
American who has not studied the whole subject carefully to estimate
accurately the part which the imposition of such a burden would be sure
to play in our future.

We have been measurably a free people. If we were under the necessity of
supporting vast military and naval establishments we should be that no
longer, no matter how completely we adhered to our democratic political
system and ideals. It is no