the Treaty--No. 249--is laid upon Germany).[110] But further,
"such supplies of food and raw materials as may be judged by the
Governments of the Principal Allied and Associated Powers to be
essential to enable Germany to meet her obligations for Reparation may
also, with the approval of the said Governments, be paid for out of the
above sum."[111] This is a qualification of high importance. The clause,
as it is drafted, allows the Finance Ministers of the Allied countries
to hold out to their electorates the hope of substantial payments at an
early date, while at the same time it gives to the Reparation Commission
a discretion, which the force of facts will compel them to exercise, to
give back to Germany what is required for the maintenance of her
economic existence. This discretionary power renders the demand for an
immediate payment of $5,000,000,000 less injurious than it would
otherwise be, but nevertheless it does not render it innocuous. In the
first place, my conclusions in the next section of this chapter indicate
that this sum cannot be found within the period indicated, even if a
large proportion is in practice returned to Germany for the purpose of
enabling her to pay for imports. In the second place, the Reparation
Commission can only exercise its discretionary power effectively by
taking charge of the entire foreign trade of Germany, together with the
foreign exchange arising out of it, which will be quite beyond the
capacity of any such body. If the Reparation Commission makes any
serious attempt to administer the collection of this sum of
$5,000,000,000 and to authorize the return to Germany of a part it, the
trade of Central Europe will be strangled by bureaucratic regulation in
its most inefficient form.

2. In addition to the early payment in cash or kind of a sum of
$5,000,000,000, Germany is required to deliver bearer bonds to a further
amount of $10,000,000,000, or, in the event of the payments in cash or
kind before May 1, 1921, available for Reparation, falling short of
$5,000,000,000 by reason of the permitted deductions, to such further
amount as shall bring the total payments by Germany in cash, kind, and
bearer bonds up to May 1, 1921, to a figure of $15,000,000,000
altogether.[112] These bearer bonds carry interest at 2-1/2 per cent per
annum from 1921 to 1925, and at 5 per cent _plus_ 1 per cent for
amortization thereafter. Assuming, therefore, that Germany is not able
to provide any appre