k by this
fact, both when studying history and when observing the men of my own
day. Contemporary societies, at a great distance one from another and
having no means of rapid intercommunication, will simultaneously exhibit
the same moral and social phenomena. Hardly ever is a discovery born in
the brain of a single inventor. At the same instant, other inventors
happen upon it, anticipate it, or are hot upon the trail. The popular
phrase runs, "the idea is in the air." When an idea is in the air, a
mutation is about to occur in the human brain. We are, says Nicolai, on
the eve of a "mutation of war." Moltke and Tolstoi represent the two
great contrasted variations in human thought. Moltke extolled the
ethical value of war; Tolstoi passed unqualified condemnation on war.
Which of these two minds represents the variation of genius and which
the variation of madness? In the light of contemporary events, most
people would be inclined to give the palm to Moltke. But when an
organism is about to undergo mutation, the change is often preluded by
frequent and extensive variations. Of these divergent variations, those
only persist which are best suited to the conditions of existence. Thus,
in Nicolai's view, the ideas of Moltke and his disciples are a
favourable presage that mutation is imminent.

* * * * *

Whatever we may think of this hope that within the near future a
mutation will occur leading to the formation of a humanity radically
opposed to war, it is enough to watch the biological development of the
extant world to acquire the belief that a new organisation, vaster and
more peaceful, is at hand. In proportion as humanity evolves,
communications between men are multiplied. During the last century there
occurred a sudden and enormous improvement in the technical means for
the exchange of ideas. To give one example only. In former days the
circulation of letters throughout the whole world did not exceed one
hundred thousand a year. To-day, the postal correspondence in Germany
amounts to a milliard letters a year (15 per head), whereas formerly the
number was 1 per 1,000 of the population. About forty years ago, in the
countries which now form parts of the postal union, three milliards of
letters, etc., were posted annually. By the year 1906 the number had
increased to thirty-five milliards; and by 1914, to fifty milliards. (In
Germany, 1 per head every 10 days; in Great Britain, 1 per head