power of Austria suffers
an almost complete eclipse. But even the loss of Galicia, Bukovina,
Transylvania, the Trentino, and the Serbo-Croat provinces would still leave
Austria-Hungary a State of very considerable area, with a population of 32
millions. There is no reason why such a State should not continue to exist,
provided that it retained the necessary access to the sea at Trieste and
Pola, and this would involve the exclusion of the Slovenes from the
new Jugo-Slav State. Under such circumstances it would be possible to
reconstruct the State on a federal basis, with five main racial units,
the Germans, the Czechs and Slovaks, the Magyars, the Slovenes, and the
Italians. Certain unimportant racial minorities would still be left, but
these could unquestionably be dealt with by a law of guarantees, similar to
those which have played so conspicuous a part in the theory, but sometimes
also in the practice, of the Dual Monarchy. So many severe amputations
might, however, prove too much for the vitality of the patient; and in any
case we may assume that either Austria-Hungary will be able to prevent the
operation, or that the Allies, if they can once bring matters thus far,
will insist upon completing the process by a drastic post-mortem inquiry.
Any sympathetic qualms are likely to be outweighed by the consideration
that a State of this hybrid nature would tend to be more than ever a vassal
of Germany. Moreover, there can be no doubt that one of the surest means of
bringing Germany to her knees is by crushing her most formidable ally, and
thus tapping some of the sources of her own military and economic strength.
It is safe to assume that this consideration plays an important part in the
military plans of Russia; and for many reasons--political, strategic, and
economic--a Russian occupation of Bohemia must be regarded as the essential
prelude to a decisive victory of the Allies. The war has thrown the
Dual Monarchy into the melting-pot; but it is not enough to accept the
possibility of its disappearance from the map, it is also necessary to
consider what new organisms would take its place. A complete partition
would, as we have seen, remove the last obstacle to a unified Southern
Slav State. The dreams of Italia Irredenta and Greater Roumania would
be realised. Western Galicia and a part of Silesia would be united to
autonomous Poland as reconstituted by the Russian Tsar. Eastern Galicia,
Northern Bukovina, and the Ruthene