able, it will be on that side where there is a superior number of
chances, than where there is an inferior: should this be said, I would
ask, what is here meant by likelihood and probability? The likelihood
and probability of chances is a superior number of equal chances; and
consequently when we say it is likely the event win fall on the side,
which is superior, rather than on the inferior, we do no more than
affirm, that where there is a superior number of chances there is
actually a superior, and where there is an inferior there is an
inferior; which are identical propositions, and of no consequence. The
question is, by what means a superior number of equal chances operates
upon the mind, and produces belief or assent; since it appears, that
it is neither by arguments derived from demonstration, nor from
probability.

In order to clear up this difficulty, we shall suppose a person to take
a dye, formed after such a manner as that four of its sides are marked
with one figure, or one number of spots, and two with another; and to
put this dye into the box with an intention of throwing it: It is plain,
he must conclude the one figure to be more probable than the other, and
give the preference to that which is inscribed on the greatest number
of sides. He in a manner believes, that this will lie uppermost; though
still with hesitation and doubt, in proportion to the number of chances,
which are contrary: And according as these contrary chances diminish,
and the superiority encreases on the other side, his belief acquires new
degrees of stability and assurance. This belief arises from an operation
of the mind upon the simple and limited object before us; and therefore
its nature will be the more easily discovered and explained. We have
nothing but one single dye to contemplate, in order to comprehend one of
the most curious operations of the understanding.

This dye, formed as above, contains three circumstances worthy of our
attention. First, Certain causes, such as gravity, solidity, a cubical
figure, &c. which determine it to fall, to preserve its form in its
fall, and to turn up one of its sides. Secondly, A certain number
of sides, which are supposed indifferent. Thirdly, A certain figure
inscribed on each side. These three particulars form the whole nature of
the dye, so far as relates to our present purpose; and consequently are
the only circumstances regarded by the mind in its forming a judgment
concerning the re