in their own hands. A
slight break in our diplomatic relations, some trifle seized hold of by
the Press and magnified at once into an insult, and the war torch is
kindled. To-day war does not come about by the slowly growing desire of
nations. The threads of fate are in the hands of a few diplomatists at
Berlin and London--a turn of the wrist, and there is tension which a
breath can turn either way. You ask me why the Emperor should choose
England for attack. There are many reasons: first, because England alone
could repay him for the struggle; secondly, because he is intensely and
miserably jealous of our own King, who has avoided all his own
hot-headed errors, and has yet played a great and individual part in the
world's affairs; thirdly, because England is most easily attacked. I
could give you other reasons if you wanted them."

"Quite enough," Duncombe answered. "What do you suppose would be the
_casus belli_?"

"The progress of the Russian fleet through English waters," Lord Runton
answered promptly. "Russia's interest in such a misunderstanding would
be, of course, immense. She has only to fire on an English ship, by
mistake of course, and the whole fat would be in the fire. England
probably would insist upon the squadron being detained, Germany would
protest against any such action. We might very well be at war with
Russia and Germany within ten days. Russia would immediately either make
terms with Japan, or abandon any active operations in Manchuria and move
upon India. Germany would come for us."

"Is this all purely imagination?" Duncombe asked, "or have you anything
to go on?"

"So far as I am concerned," Lord Runton said slowly, "I, of course, know
nothing. But I have a strong idea that the Government have at least a
suspicion of some secret understanding between Russia and Germany. Their
preparations seem almost to suggest it. Of course we outsiders can only
guess, after all, at what is going on, but it seems to me that there is
a chance to-day for our Government to achieve a diplomatic _coup_."

"In what direction?"

"An alliance with France. Mind, I am afraid that there are
insurmountable obstacles, but if it were possible it would be checkmate
to our friend the Emperor, and he would have nothing left but to climb
down. The trouble is that in the absence of any definite proof of an
understanding between Russia and Germany, France could not break away
from her alliance with the former. Our present