cause of peace. In vain does the Kaiser assure us of his pacific
intentions: a ruler cannot with impunity glorify for ever the wars of
the past, spend most of the resources of his people on the
preparations for the wars of the future, encourage the warlike spirit,
make the duel compulsory on officers and the _Mensur_ honourable to
students, place his chief trust in his Junkers, who live and move and
have their being in the game of war, foster the aggressive spirit in
the nation, and hold out ambitions which can only be fulfilled by an
appeal to arms: a ruler cannot for ever continue to saw the dragon's
teeth and only reap harvests of yellow grain and golden grapes."

XIX.--BELGIUM THE ACHILLES HEEL OF THE BRITISH EMPIRE.

"Personally I am inclined to think that the fear of a German invasion
has haunted far too exclusively the imagination of the English people,
and has diverted their attention from another danger far more real and
far more immediate. With characteristic _naivete_ and insular
selfishness, some jingoes imagine that if only the naval armaments of
Germany could be stopped, all danger to England would be averted. But
surely the greatest danger to England is not the invasion of England:
it is the invasion of France and Belgium. For in the case of an
invasion of England, even the Germans admit that the probabilities of
success would all be against Germany; whilst in the case of an
invasion of France, the Germans claim that the probabilities are all
in their favour. It is therefore in France and Belgium that the
vulnerable point lies, the Achilles heel of the British Empire."

XX.--THE NEUTRALITY OF BELGIUM WILL BE VIOLATED.

"It is true that in theory the neutrality of Belgium is guaranteed by
international treaties; but when I observe the signs of the times, the
ambitions of the German rulers, and when I consider such indications
as the recent extension of strategic railways on the Belgian-German
frontiers, I do not look forward with any feeling of security to
future contingencies in the event of a European war. I am not at all
convinced that the scare of a German invasion of England is justified.
Indeed, I am inclined to believe the Germans when they assert that in
case of war Germany would not be likely to invade Britain. She would
be far more likely to invade Belgium, because Belgium has always been
the pawn in the great game of European politics, and has often been,
and may again become, the battle