sters want war. War is too great a
risk. It is too much of a gamble. In warfare it is always the
unexpected that happens. War may be the national industry of Prussia.
But it is the most _speculative_ of all industries.

At the same time, whilst we are all wishing for peace, we must ever be
on our guard. With the militarist tendencies of a bureaucratic and
despotic State, with the economic pressure of an increasing
population, one is always at the mercy of an incident. Twenty-five
years ago the Schnaebele incident brought Europe to the verge of war.
Similar frontier incidents in this age of aeroplanes can happen any
day. They did happen yesterday. They did not lead to serious
consequences. They might lead to fatal consequences to-morrow. They
might be magnified by a sensational Press and by bellicose partisans
such as the Pan-Germanists. The Pan-Germanists may be only a small
minority to-day, but they are noisy, and they are just the kind of
people ever looking out for just such "unpleasant incidents."

Yes, let us be on our guard! Let us not trust to a false sense of
security, and let us not put our trust in politics and politicians.
Politics are so petty, and politicians so impotent. How many so-called
statesmen are there to-day who have the courage of their convictions,
and who would not be carried away by the impulses and emotions of the
moment?

V.

Such were the weighty words of the European statesman. They were
uttered without animus and without passion. They were uttered with the
serene detachment of the philosopher and of the experienced man of the
world. And they express the deliberate opinions of a confirmed
pacifist. And they express the substantial truth.

It would be well if our German friends would ponder and meditate those
sober and sobering utterances. It would be well if they would try and
give their own explanation of their tragic isolation and of their
universal political unpopularity. It would be well if they in turn
would ask themselves why political Germany is left without a friend in
the wide world? As Maximilian Harden once said: "Uns lebt kein Freund
auf der weiten Welt." Might not the result of such sobering
reflections be to induce the Germans to turn over a new leaf? Might it
not help to precipitate the downfall of a medieval military
bureaucracy? And might it not help to falsify the ominous prophecy of
our European statesman that Prussia will more and more control the
politics of th