ise of existing stumpage
while it continues to exist, but is the extent of the new-grown
supply which will follow it provided existing conditions remain
unchanged. It is inconsistent to figure the cost upon almost prohibitive
present conditions without also recognizing that such conditions, if
continued, will completely change the influences which now determine
the market.

WHO CAN AFFORD TO REFOREST NOW

On the other hand, timber owners have by no means equal opportunity
to take advantage of this fact. The productive capacity of their
land varies, their taxes vary, the extent and location of their
holdings affects the expense of protection against fire, and they
have not the same facilities for financing a long term investment.
It is the balance of these factors that determine their opportunity.
Assuming rate of timber growth to be equal, present fire and tax
conditions classify them in relative advantage about as follows:

1. Owners of large holdings of virgin timber who can meet carrying
charges by occasional sales at a profit over their purchase price,
but will not sell much more than is necessary because all they
can afford to hold is advancing in value. Such owners have more
or less land deforested by fire or their own milling operations,
and will incline to sell only stumpage without land. This land is
not easily realized upon at present, and for the speculative reason
stated, they will continue in business long enough to grow a new
crop on it. The larger their holdings, the greater the certainty of
this and the cheaper, relatively, the cost of protection. Moreover,
concerns dealing with large and long term investments can consider
a lower interest rate.

2. Owners with less facility for making an actual profit through
growing timber, but desiring to maintain a milling business. Even
if the cost of growing approaches or equals the value of the crop,
they will be able to count on continued manufacturing profit.

(Both of the above classes face a possibility of so heavy a tax on
their virgin timber in some instances that they will be obliged to
cut it and go out of business. This is unlikely to occur generally,
however, for tax reform is almost inevitable, and it would have a
compensatory effect of enhancing the value of the second crop.)

3. Owners whose holdings are not large enough to keep them in business
until a second crop matures but are advantageously located. Second
growth need not be mature to hav