rman to start the
practice of forestry for the purpose of strengthening his position
and getting the most favorable conditions possible for its general
adoption and continuance. How much does he depend upon success in
this? Obviously, early public favor will hasten and add to the
security of forest growing as a business, but is it absolutely
essential? Do existing conditions and inevitable future conditions,
regardless of public intelligence, furnish premises upon which we
can calculate certain profit in some degree?

This depends upon the circumstances of the individual investor.
Without an expectation of more favorable fire and tax influences,
reforestation cannot be universally recommended as a business
proposition. Many timber owners are not warranted in undertaking
it. Not enough are warranted in doing so to insure the future timber
supply upon which public welfare depends. Nevertheless, there are
conditions under which it is a good investment. It is even probable
that for those who are well situated, the very obstacles which deter
others will be advantageous through reducing competition. _This
fact is of peculiar significance to the public, for if the latter
fails to stimulate reforestation generally it will play directly into
the hands of the few who are independent of encouragement_.

It is customary, in speculating upon the profits of a second timber
crop, to attempt to reduce it to a financial calculation based upon
estimated yield, estimated future values and estimated carrying
charges. These considerations are important, but their importance is
largely in proportion to the financial weakness of the prospective
timber grower. We revert again to the practical certainty that unless
reforestation is general, the exhaustion of virgin timber will be
followed by a shortage, and that the man who has a second crop at that
time can obtain a price which will reimburse his carrying charges
be they high or low. The cost of overcoming present obstacles will
be shifted to the consumer. The possibility of such an investment
is determined largely by ability to maintain a protective system
with economy and to bear the expense of this and of heavy taxation
during the period of no return.

In short, the weakness of the ordinary financial calculation upon
existing conditions is that it attempts to estimate future stumpage
values without knowledge of the true factor which will determine
them. This factor is not the probable r