THE BUDGET

LEICESTER, _September 5, 1909_

(From _The Times_, by permission.)

I have done my best to study the political history of the last forty
or fifty years, and I cannot find any Government which, at the end of
its fourth year, enjoyed the same measure of support, prestige, and
good fortune that we do. The only Administration which could compare
in the importance and the volume of its legislation with the present
Government is Mr. Gladstone's great Government of 1868. That was a
Government of measures and of men; but no measure of that Government
could equal in importance the Old-Age Pensions Act which we have
placed on the Statute-book. The settlement of the Irish Church
question by Disestablishment was not a more baffling and intricate
business, than the settlement of the Irish University question which
Mr. Birrell has achieved. The labour legislation of the Government of
1868, although very important, shows nothing which equals in
importance the Trades Disputes Act, which we have carried through, and
Mr. Cardwell's reforms in army organisation were not more successful,
and were certainly much less generally accepted, than those which have
been effected by Mr. Haldane. In the fourth year of its administration
the Government of 1868 was genuinely unpopular. It had quarrelled with
the Nonconformists without gaining the support of the Church; it had
offended the liquor interest without satisfying the Temperance forces
in the country; it had disturbed and offended many vested interests
without arousing popular enthusiasm.

Indeed, if you look back, you will find that the fourth year in the
history of a Government is always a very critical and has often been a
very unfortunate year. It is quite true that Mr. Disraeli's
Government, which assumed office in 1874, did enjoy in its fourth year
a fleeting flush of success, which, however, proved illusory. With
that single exception, every other modern Government that has lasted
so long, has occupied an unsatisfactory position in its fourth year.
The Government of 1880 in the year 1884 was brought very low, and was
deeply involved in disastrous enterprises beyond the sea which
ultimately resulted in sorrow and misfortune. The Conservative
Government which took office in 1886 was by the year 1890, owing to
its strange proceedings against Mr. Parnell, brought to the depths of
humiliation. The Government of 1895 was in the year 1899 thoroughly
unpopular, and if they ha