isation. Measles is
a dangerous, indeed generally fatal, disease in countries to which it is
first introduced. But in time immunity comes to make it almost
harmless. Bulgaria's material for a modern national organisation is
being quickly improved by the upgrowth of a middle class whose sons will
be able to keep their Bulgarian qualities even under the circumstances
of life in Paris or other great modern city. In future, then, the
courage of the people is likely to have a wiser, more reasonable
leadership, and, with that, it will do wonders.

But I do not wish to be misunderstood as representing that to-day the
official classes and the leaders of the Bulgarian nation are generally
unworthy or incompetent. That would be very far from the truth. But it
is the truth that as yet Bulgaria has not a class sufficient in numbers
and strong enough in tradition to supply her needs in leadership. How
could it be otherwise, seeing that the nation is not much more than a
generation old, and has had to begin working up its organisation from
bed-rock?

The events of 1913-1914 have left Bulgaria weak in her greatest element of
national strength--in the numbers of her citizens. The wars with the
Turks and the subsequent war with the other Balkan states, the ravages
of cholera and, one may unhappily conclude too, the ravages of hunger
after the dreadful ordeals of the successive campaigns, have taken heavy
toll of Bulgarian manhood. But the country will "stock up" quickly. Its
birth-rate is the highest in the world; and its "effective" birth-rate,
_i.e._ the proportion of survivals of those born, is also the highest.
If only a period of peace can be secured, all will be well in time.

[Illustration: A YOUNG MAN OF THE CHOUMLA DISTRICT]

Poor as were her acquisitions of territory compared with her hopes from
the war, Bulgaria at least won a free outlet to the open sea. Her ports
on the Black Sea were always felt to be of limited use, because traffic
to and from them had to pass through the Dardanelles and was therefore
at the mercy of Turkey in case of war. But now Bulgaria has free access
to the Aegean Sea, and though without a good port has a possible port
there.

Considerations of strategic position and of territorial acquisition are,
however, of minor importance in considering Bulgaria's future. It is in
the character of the Bulgarian race and the conditions of life
encouraging the growth of that sturdy character in which the hope