, however,
he determined, with the self-possession of a fearless gambler, to
proceed with the game.

At Berlin, the theory that Russia was incapable of facing a conflict
reigned supreme, not only in the official world and in society, but
among all the manufacturers who made a specialty of war material.

[Sidenote: Berlin believes Russia weak.]

Herr Krupp von Bohlen, who was more entitled to give an opinion than any
other of this class, declared on July 28 that the Russian artillery was
neither efficient nor complete, while that of the German army had never
before been so superior to all its rivals. It would be madness on
Russia's part, he inferred, to take the field against Germany under
these conditions.

V

The foreign diplomatic corps was kept in more or less profound ignorance
as to the _pourparlers_ carried on since the 24th by the Imperial
Foreign Office with the Triple Entente Cabinets. Nevertheless, to the
diplomats who were continually going over to the Wilhelmstrasse for
news, the crisis was set forth in a light very favourable to Austria and
Germany, in order to influence the views of the Governments which they
represented. Herr von Stumm, the departmental head of the political
branch, in a brief interview that I had with him on the 26th, summed up
his exposition in these words: "Everything depends on Russia." I should
rather have thought that everything depended on Austria, and on the way
in which she would carry out her threats against Serbia.

On the following day I was received by Herr Zimmermann, who adopted the
same line of argument, following it in all its bearings from the origin
of the dispute.

It was not at our prompting [he said], or in accordance with our advice,
that Austria took the action that you know of towards the Belgrade
Cabinet. The answer was unsatisfactory, and to-day Austria is
mobilizing. She can no longer draw back without risking a collapse at
home as well as a loss of influence abroad. It is now a question of life
and death to her. She must put a stop to the unscrupulous propaganda
which, by raising revolt among the Slav provinces of the Danube valley,
is leading towards her internal disintegration. Finally, she must exact
a signal revenge for the assassination of the Archduke. For all these
reasons Serbia is to receive, by means of a military expedition, a stern
and salutary lesson. An Austro-Serbian War is, therefore, impossible to
avoid.

[Sidenote: Attempts to li