emains unaltered. When the policy is pushed as far as the suppression
of isolated misfortunes which flame in the headlines of the enemy
Press from Cologne to Constantinople, then I begin to wonder whether I
am living in three dimensions or in four.

If, then, he does not rely on the official bulletins, and he has no
military expertise, how is the civilian justified in being optimistic?
The reply is that the use of his common-sense may justify his
optimism. The realm of common-sense being universal, even war comes
within it. And the fact is that the major aspects of the war are no
more military than they are political, social, and psychological. Take
one of the most important aspects--the character of generals. It
cannot be denied that after ten months, confidence in Joffre has
increased. At the beginning of the war, when the German plan was
being exactly followed and was succeeding, when the Germans had an
immense advantage of numbers, when their reserves of men and munitions
were untouched, when everything was against us, and everything in
favour of the Germans, Joffre, aided by the British, defeated the
Germans. He defeated them by superior generalship. Common-sense says
that now, when the boot is on the other leg, Joffre will assuredly
defeat the Germans--and decisively, and common-sense is quite prepared
to wait until Joffre is ready. Again, take the case of the Grand Duke.
The Grand Duke has shown over and over again that he is an extremely
brilliant general of the first order. In the very worst days, when
everything was against him and everything in favour of the Germans, as
in the West, he held his own and he has continually produced many more
casualties in the German ranks than the Germans have produced in his
ranks. He still has many things against him, but it is not possible
reasonably to believe that the Grand Duke will let himself in for a
disaster. That he should avoid a disaster is all that the West front
demands of him at present.

On the other side, General von Moltke, head of the German Great
General Staff, has been superseded. What German General has advanced
in reputation? There is only one answer--von Hindenberg. Von
Hindenberg won the largest (not the most important) victory of the war
in the Battle of Tannenberg. He won it because the ground was
exceedingly difficult, and because he knew the ground far better than
any other man on earth. He was entitled to very high credit. He got
it. He became t