s. Which of the
two missing parties were we to try and find? A winter journey to relieve
Campbell and his five men was out of the question. I doubt the
possibility of such a journey to Evans Coves with fit men: to us at any
rate it was unthinkable. Also if we could do the double journey up and
down, Campbell could certainly do the single journey down. Add to this
that there was every sign of open water under the Western Mountains,
though this did not influence us much when the decision was made. The
problem as it presented itself to us was much as follows:

Campbell's Party _might_ have been picked up by the Terra Nova. Pennell
meant to have another try to reach him on his way north, and it was
probable that the ship would not be able to communicate again with Cape
Evans owing to ice: on the other hand it was likely that the ship had
_not_ been able to relieve him. It also seemed that he could not have
travelled down the coast at this time, owing to the state of the sea-ice.
The danger to him and his men was primarily during the winter: every day
after the winter his danger was lessened. If we started in the end of
October to relieve Campbell, estimating the probable date of arrival of
the ship, we judged that we could reach him only five or six weeks before
the ship relieved him. All the same Campbell and his men might be alive,
and, having lived through the winter, the arrival of help might make the
difference between life and death.

On the other hand we knew that the Polar Party must be dead. They might
be anywhere between Hut Point and the Pole, drifted over by snow, or
lying at the bottom of a crevasse, which seemed the most likely thing to
have happened. From the Upper Glacier Depot in 85 deg. 5' S. to the Pole,
that is the whole distance of the Plateau Journey, we did not know the
courses they had steered nor the position of their depots, for Lieutenant
Evans, who brought back the Last Return Party, was invalided home and
neither of the seamen who remained of this party knew the courses.

After the experience of both the supporting parties on their way down the
Beardmore Glacier, when we all got into frightfully crevassed areas, it
was the general opinion that the Polar Party must have fallen down a
crevasse; the weight of five men, as compared with the four men and three
men of the other return parties, supported this theory. Lashly was
inclined to think they had had scurvy. The true solution never once
occur