t fact is that he did get it and that he paid up
all that he owed. So that he was only a potential defaulter, so to
speak; and, discreditable as the affair undoubtedly was, it does not
seem to have any direct bearing on this present case."

"No," Jervis agreed, "though it makes one consider his position with
more attention than one would otherwise."

"Undoubtedly," said Thorndyke. "A reckless gambler is a man whose
conduct cannot be relied on. He is subject to sudden vicissitudes of
fortune which may force him into other kinds of wrongdoing. Many an
embezzlement has been preceded by an unlucky plunge on the turf."

"Assuming the responsibility for this disappearance to lie between Hurst
and--and the Bellinghams," said I, with an uncomfortable gulp as I
mentioned the name of my friends, "to which side does the balance of
probability incline?"

"To the side of Hurst, I should say, without doubt," replied Thorndyke.
"The case stands thus--on the facts presented to us: Hurst appears to
have had no motive for killing the deceased (as we will call him); but
the man was seen to enter his house, was never seen to leave it, and was
never again seen alive. Bellingham, on the other hand, had a motive, as
he believed himself to be the principal beneficiary under the will. But
the deceased was not seen at his house, and there is no evidence that he
went to the house or to the neighbourhood of the house, excepting the
scarab that was found there. But the evidence of the scarab is vitiated
by the fact that Hurst was present when it was picked up, and that it
was found on a spot over which Hurst had passed only a few minutes
previously. Until Hurst is cleared, it seems to me that the presence of
the scarab proves nothing against the Bellinghams."

"Then your opinions on the case," said I, "are based entirely on the
facts that have been made public."

"Yes, mainly. I do not necessarily accept those facts just as they are
presented, and I may have certain views of my own on the case. But if I
have, I do not feel in a position to discuss them. For the present,
discussion has to be limited to the facts and inferences offered by the
parties concerned."

"There!" exclaimed Jervis, rising to knock out his pipe, "that is where
Thorndyke has you. He lets you think you're in the very thick of the
'know' until one fine morning you wake up and discover that you have
only been a gaping outsider; and then you are mightily astonished--and
so