That may or may not be a wise thing to do, but at least let us be
certain before taking action, or before taking thought which is
preliminary to action, that we know our facts, and all our facts. The
second point is as important as the first. On hastily reading Mr.
Williams's book for the first time, my impression was that he had only
erred by overlooking facts which told on the other side. On general
grounds, considering the signs of prosperity on every side, it seemed to
me impossible that the condition of our foreign trade could be so bad as
the author of "Made in Germany" paints it. A cursory glance at a few
staple figures convinced me that my general impression was a sound one,
that our trade was not going to the dogs, and that Mr. Williams had only
succeeded in producing so gloomy a picture by fixing his gaze on the
shadows and shutting his eyes to the sunlight. On this supposition I
began a more critical examination of his book, not with a view to
refuting his positive statements, but with a view to showing that in
spite of the ugly facts which he had, on the whole usefully, brought to
light, there were counterbalancing considerations from which we might
draw, at any rate, partial consolation. This I propose to do, but in
addition I shall be able to show that many of Mr. Williams's alleged
ugly facts are not in reality so ugly as he makes them look, and that
what he has done, in his eagerness to prove his case, is to so choose
his figures and so phrase his sentences as to convey in particular
instances an entirely false impression. How this is done will be shown
in detail later on. For the present it is sufficient to state that it is
done, and that some of the most alarmist statements in "Made in Germany"
will not bear critical examination. In a word, the author, in his
polemical zeal, has sinned both sins--he has suggested the false and he
has omitted the true; he has misrepresented, in particular instances,
the facts to which he refers, and he has not referred at all to facts
which refute his general argument.

THE WHOLE TRUTH.

It is with these that I propose first to deal, with the facts which show
that our trade is in a very healthy condition, and that though Germany
is also doing well and hitting us hard in some trades, there is no
reason to believe that her prosperity is, on the whole, injuring us. And
to guard myself, at the outset, against a temptation to which Mr.
Williams has frequently succumbe