of this
species of menace from Prussia, arming himself. He can bring into the
field almost seventy thousand good cavalry. In the meantime, though
nothing transpires publicly of the confederation between France and the
two empires, mentioned in my letter of September the 19th, it is not
the less sure that it is on the carpet, and will take place. To the
circumstances before mentioned may be added, as further indications of
war, the naming as Generalissimo of their marine on the Atlantic,
Monsieur de Suffrein, on the Mediterranean, Monsieur Albert de Rioms,
the recalling Monsieur de St. Priest, their Ambassador, from Antwerp,
before he had reached the Hague, and the activity of their armies by
sea. On the other hand, the little movement by land would make one
suppose they expected to put the King of Prussia into other hands.
They, too, like the Emperor, are arranging matters at home. The
rigorous levy of the _deux vingtiemes_ is enregistered, the stamp act
and impost territorial are revoked, the parliament recalled, the nation
soothed by these acts, and inspired by the insults of the British
court. The part of the Council still leaning towards peace, are become
unpopular, and perhaps may feel the effects of it. No change in the
administration has taken place since my last, unless we may consider as
such, Monsieur Cabarrus's refusal to stand in the lines. Thinking he
should be forced to follow, too seriously, plans formed by others, he
has declined serving.

Should this war take place, as is quite probable, and should it be as
general as it threatens to be, our neutrality must be attended with
great advantages. Whether of a nature to improve our morals or our
happiness, is another question. But is it sure, that Great Britain, by
her searches, her seizures, and other measures for harassing us, will
permit us to preserve our neutrality? I know it may be argued, that the
land war which she would superadd to her sea war, by provoking us to
join her enemies, should rationally hold her to her good behavior with
us. But since the accession of the present monarch, has it not been
passion, and not reason which, nine times out of ten, has dictated her
measures? Has there been a better rule of prognosticating what he would
do, than to examine what he ought not to do? When I review his
dispositions, and review his conduct, I have little hope of his
permitting our neutrality. He will find subjects of provocation in
various articles o