countries will scrupulously respect their obligations held by a great
neutral like the United States whose good will and resources will be
very necessary after the close of hostilities, there is the possibility,
remote though it may be, that repudiation of home issues may come in the
shock of readjustment.
In a word, in purchasing a foreign war bond be sure to get a stable
national name, accumulated wealth, habits of thrift, an ample taxing
power, and a good conversion basis behind the security.
Amid all our war lending lurks a menace to future and necessary American
financing. In flush times like these it is comparatively easy for us to
spare large sums of money, because such capital is available and not
missed at home. If there was the absolute certainty that all the foreign
short term loans would be paid on maturity there would be no reason to
show the red light.
But any man who knows anything about the European financial situation
also knows that it will be extremely difficult, almost impossible, for
the fighting nations to meet their obligations within the time
specified. This does not mean that they will be unable to pay. It does
mean, however, that the inroads of the war will have been so terrific
that pressing needs will so continue to pile up that renewals must be
sought. Thus our money will still be tied up.
What will happen at home? Simply this. American enterprise which will
need capital for expansion may have to wait. In discussing this matter
one of the best known American bankers said this to me the other day:
"If America had a benevolent despot I believe that he ought to set
aside an arbitrary sum which would represent the limit that we as a
nation could lend each year to foreign countries."
There is still another hardship in this outward flow of our capital. It
lies in the fact that the very attractive terms of the war loans have
made it very difficult for American railroads and corporations to
finance their needs. They must pay more for their requirements than ever
before.
Yet this war financing has done more for us than merely provide an
opportunity for the profitable employment of hundreds of millions of
dollars. It has brought back home about $1,500,000,000 of our
securities, mostly in railroad, that were held abroad. This has not only
meant a considerable cutting down in the sum that we formerly had to
send to Europe in interest and dividends, but it has helped to make us
more econom
|