rtillery fire, which had never been exceeded in the whole course of the
war, a great saving of British life has been effected." And no praise
can be too high for our gunners. In a field where, two years ago,
Germany had the undisputed predominance, we have now beaten her alike in
the supply of guns and in the daring and efficiency of our gunners.

Nevertheless, let there be no foolish underestimate of the still
formidable strength of the Germans. The British and French missions will
have brought to your Government all available information on this point.
There can be no doubt that a "wonderful" effort, as one of our Ministers
calls it, has been made by Germany during the past winter. She has
mobilised all her people for the war as she has never done yet. She has
increased her munitions and put fresh divisions in the field. The
estimates of her present fighting strength given by our military writers
and correspondents do not differ very much.

Colonel Repington, in _The Times_, puts the German fighting men on both
fronts at 4,500,000, with 500,000 on the lines of communication, and a
million in the German depots. Mr. Belloc's estimate is somewhat less,
but not materially different. Both writers agree that we are in presence
of Germany's last and greatest effort, that she has no more behind, and
that if the Allies go on as they have begun--and now with the help of
America--this summer should witness the fulfilment at least of that
forecast which I reported to you in my earlier letters as so general
among the chiefs of our Army in France--_i.e._ "this year will see the
war _decided_, but may not see it ended." Since I came home, indeed,
more optimistic prophecies have reached me from France. For some weeks
after the American declaration of war, "We shall be home by Christmas!"
was the common cry--and amongst some of the best-informed.

But the Russian situation has no doubt: reacted to some extent on these
April hopes. And it is clear that, during April and early May, under the
stimulus of the submarine successes, German spirits have temporarily
revived. Never have the Junkers been more truculent, never have the
Pan-Germans talked wilder nonsense about "annexation" and "indemnities."
Until quite recently at any rate, the whole German nation--except no
doubt a cautious and intelligent few at the real sources of
information--believed that the submarine campaign would soon "bring
England to her knees." They were so confident