ig Allied military victory would, of course, change everything.
Defeat of the German army would mean defeat of von Hindenburg, the
German god. It would put an end to the Kaiser's juggling with his
people's nerves. But few people in Germany expect an Entente victory
this year, and they believe that if the Allies don't win this year they
never will win.

Germany is stronger militarily now than she has been and Germany will
be able for many months to keep many Entente armies occupied. Before
the year is passed the Entente may need American troops as badly as
France needed English assistance last year. General von Falkenhayn,
former chief of the German General Staff, told me about the same thing
last December, in Rumania.

"In war," he remarked, "nothing is certain except that everything is
uncertain, but one thing I know is certain: We will win the war."

_America's entrance, however, will have the decisive effect_. The
Allies, especially the French, appreciate this. As a high French
official remarked one day when Ambassador Gerard's party was in Paris:

"There have been two great moments in the war for France. The first
was when England declared war to support us. The second was the
breaking of diplomatic relations between the United States and Germany."

The Germans don't believe this. As General von Stein, Prussian
Minister of War, said, Germany doesn't fear the United States. He said
that, of course, for its effect upon the German people. The people
must be made to believe this or they will not be able to hate America
in true German fashion.

America's participation, however, will upset Hindenburg's war plans.
American intervention can put a stop to the Kaiser's juggling with his
people's minds by helping the Allies defeat Germany. Only a big
military defeat will shake the confidence of the Germans in the Kaiser,
Hindenburg and their organised might. The people are beginning to
think now, but they will do a great deal more thinking if they are
beaten.

So the answer to the question: "How long can Germany hold out?" is
really answered by saying that Germany can keep on until she is
decisively defeated militarily.

CHAPTER VIII

THE PEACE DRIVE OF DECEMBER 12TH

I

Disturbed by internal political dissension and tormented by lack of
food the German ship of state was sailing troubled waters by November,
1916. Chancellor von Bethmann-Hollweg's speech to the Reichstag on
September 28th sati