as twelve 12-inch guns of higher initial velocity. Which is
the more powerful ship? Suppose one ship has more armor, another
more speed. Formulae designed to assign numerical values to fighting
ships have been laboriously worked out, notably by Constructor Otto
Kretschmer of the German navy; but the results cannot be accepted
as anything except very able approximations. Furthermore, if ship
_A_ could whip ship _B_ under some conditions, _B_ could whip _A_
under other conditions. An extreme illustration would be battleship
_A_ engaged with submarine _B_ at close quarters; _B_ being on
the surface in one case, and submerged in the other case.

_Aircraft_.--The influence of aircraft on naval operations is to
be very great indeed, but in directions and by amounts that it
would not be wise to attempt to predict. The most obvious influence
will be in distant scouting, for which the great speed of aircraft
will make them peculiarly adapted, as was demonstrated in the battle
near the Skagerak. It is the belief of the author, however, that
the time is close at hand when aeroplanes and dirigibles of large
size will be capable of offensive operations of the highest order,
including the launching of automobile torpedoes of the Whitehead
type.

_Skill_.--The question of skill bears a relation to the question
of the material power directed by it that is very vital, but very
elusive. If, for instance, ship _C_, firing ten 12-inch guns on a
side, fights ship _D_, firing five like guns on a side, the advantage
would seem to be with _C_; but it would not be if each gun on _D_
made three hits, while each gun on _C_ made one hit; a relative
performance not at all impossible or unprecedented. Similarily,
if the head of the admiralty of the _E_ fleet were a very skilful
strategist, and the head of the admiralty of the _F_ fleet were
not, and if the various admirals, captains, lieutenants, engineers,
and gunners of the _E_ fleet were highly skilled, and those of
the _F_ fleet were not, the _E_ fleet might be victorious, even
if materially it were much the smaller in material and personnel.
In case the head of the admiralty of the _E_ fleet were the more
skilful, while the officers of the _F_ fleet were, on the average,
more skilful than those of the _E_ fleet, it would be impossible
to weigh the difference between them; but as a rough statement,
it may be said that if the head of the admiralty of either fleet
is more skilful than the other