n of such causes, but they are infinitely uncertain, and
much more obscure, and much more difficult to trace than the foreign
causes that tend to depress, and, sometimes, overwhelm society."

The writer who has thus expressed his scepticism on this sort of
inquiry, speaks, at the same time, of the im-[end of page #vi] portance
of distinguishing between accidental and permanent causes. He doubts
whether the history of mankind is complete enough, or, if ever it can
be so, to furnish grounds for a sure theory, on the internal causes
which necessarily affect the fortune of a state. Thus, he not only
admits the existence of permanent causes, but says, clearly, that it is
from history they are discoverable, if ever their discovery can be
accomplished. This is going as far as we could wish, and, as for the
sure theory, we join issue with him in despairing of ever obtaining one
that will deserve the name of sure.

The meaning of the word, sure, in this place, appears to be intended in
a sense peculiarly strict. It seems to imply a theory, that would be
certain in its application to those vicissitudes and fluctuations to which
nations are liable, and not merely to explaining their rise and decline.
As to such fluctuations, it would be absurd to enter into any theory
about them; they depend on particular combinations of circumstances,
too infinite, in variety, to be imagined, or subjected to any general
law, and of too momentary an operation to be foreseen.

That Mr. Burke alludes to such fluctuation is, however, evident, from
what that fanciful but deeply-read man says, immediately after: "We
have seen some states which have spent their vigour at their
commencement. Some have [end of page #vii] blazed out in their
glory a little before their extinction. The meridian of some has been
the most splendid. Others, and they the greatest number, have
fluctuated, and experienced, at different periods of their existence, a
great variety of fortune. The death of a man at a critical juncture, his
disgust, his retreat, his disgrace, have brought innumerable calamities
on a whole nation; a common soldier, a child, a girl, at the door of an
inn, have changed the face of fortune, and almost of nature."

From this it is abundantly evident, that the theory he wished for, but
despaired of ever establishing, was one that would explain such
effects; but the object of this Inquiry is totally different.

When the Romans were in their vigour, thei