I don't know what made me follow the Baron's tip."

"I think I do."

"What?"

"You have more confidence in his advice than mine," he said.

"I do not think that was the reason."

"What other could there be?"

"Obstinacy," she said.

"I never thought of that--perversity would be better."

"Much the same thing," she replied.

"I am afraid I put you wrong," said the Baron. "If it had not been for
me you would no doubt have backed Mr. Chesney's horse."

"You must not blame yourself for that. I am quite satisfied," she said.

"You would have been more satisfied had the Baron's horse won," said
Alan.

"Naturally; I backed it."

"Not for that reason alone," answered Alan, as he walked away and
joined Ella and her father.

"He leaves me for Ella always," thought Eve with a pang, "and yet I do
not think he cares for her that way. I believe he half loves me. I'll
put him to the test one of these days, it's worth the risk; nothing
venture, nothing have--an old saying which often comes true."

When Alan returned to Trent Park he found Duncan Fraser waiting for him
and at once knew there was something important to communicate. Fraser
looked serious as he said:

"I hope you had an enjoyable time at Ascot?"

"Yes; won the Hunt Cup and another race. Made a few thousands in the
meeting," said Alan.

"There'll be war in little over a month," said Fraser.

"You have had more news from Berlin?"

"This letter came this morning. I knew you were to be home to-day, so
thought I'd bring it over."

Alan thanked him, read it, and said:

"What on earth is the Government doing? It ought to be informed."

"It is--has been for sometime. But we know how it is. They always
wait until their hands are forced--they are afraid."

"Of what, of what can a British Government be afraid?"

"First and foremost, of the anti-war party, the peace-at-any-price men;
then the labor party, votes are the chief consideration. It's
abominable," said Fraser.

"Like sticking to office, I suppose?"

"Yes; at all costs."

"You are certain they know there will be war?"

"They must."

"And they will meet the shock unprepared?"

"As regards the army, yes; not the navy. There never was a navy
stronger than ours at the present day, but it's been a tremendous fight
to get the money, men and ships," said Fraser.

"You ought to be in the House," said Alan.

Fraser laughed.

"I should want a free hand from my constituents," he