e was now
thinking of the political and economic aspects of the German drive for
world supremacy; and when the allied powers intrusted him with the task
of answering the Pope's peace suggestion in the name of all of them, he
declared that "we cannot take the word of the present rulers of Germany
as a guarantee for anything that is to endure." The German Government
could not be trusted with a peace without victory.

That peace offensive died out in early Fall. The Germans had lost
interest, for they seemed likely to reach their objective in other
ways. Things were going badly for the Allies. The offensives in the
west had broken down and France's striking power seemed exhausted.
Italy suffered a terrific defeat in October. America was preparing, but
had not yet arrived, and the chief result of the Russian revolution had
been the collapse of the eastern front. When in November the Bolsheviki
overthrew Kerensky and prepared to make peace at any price, it was
evident that the German armies in France would soon be enormously
reinforced. So the Winter of 1917-18 saw a new peace offensive, but
this time most of the work was done by the Allies, and the object was
to detach Austria-Hungary from Germany.

The item of principal interest in the long-range bombardment of
speeches on war aims by which the statesmen of the various powers
conducted this exchange of views was the proclamation of the famous
Fourteen Points, in which the President for the first time put his
ideas as to the conditions of a just peace into somewhat specific form.
The origin of this program, which was eventually to become the basis of
the peace treaty, is still a matter of conjecture. Lloyd George on Jan.
5, 1918, had stated war aims in some respects identical with those
which the President embodied in the Fourteen Points three days later. A
good deal of the program had been included in the allied statement of
Jan. 11, 1917, but the Fourteen Points were somewhat more moderate.
They seemed to be, indeed, a rather hasty recension of old programs in
the effort to modify allied aspirations so that Austria would accept
them; for while the Fourteen Points professed to contain the scheme of
a just peace, they were set forth as a step in the endeavor to persuade
Austria to desert her ally. As it happened, Austria could not have
deserted Germany even if she had desired; and, in any event, the effort
to compromise was quite impracticable. The section referring to
Au