the export nadir being
approached in midsummer, when the crop has been mostly exported and
shipments of manufactured goods are running light.

From the middle of August, when the first of the new cotton crop begins
to find its way to the seaport, until the middle of December, when the
bulk of the corn and wheat crop exports have been completed, exchange
in very great volume finds its way into the New York market. Normally
this is the season of low rates, for which reason many shippers of
cotton and grain, who know months in advance approximately how much
they will ship, contract ahead of time with exchange dealers in New
York for the sale of the bills they know they will have. By so doing,
shippers are often able to obtain very much better rates. They can then
protect themselves, at least, from the extremely low rates which they
may be forced to take if they wait and accept going rates at a time
when shippers all over the country are trying to sell their bills at
the same time.

How great is the rush of exchange into market may be seen from the
statistics of cotton exports during the period given below. Not all of
this cotton goes out during the last four months of the year, but the
greater part of it does and, furthermore, cotton, while the most
important, is only _one_ of the domestic products exported in the
autumn.

MONEY VALUE OF COTTON EXPORTED

1913 $547,357,000
1912 565,849,000
1911 585,318,000
1910 450,447,000
1909 417,390,000

During the autumn months, under normal conditions, the advantage is all
with the buyer of foreign exchange. By every mail huge packages of
bills, drawn against shipments of cotton, wheat and corn, come pouring
into the New York market. Bankers' portfolios become crowded with
bills; remittances by each steamer, in the case of some of the big
bankers, run up, literally, into the millions of dollars. Naturally,
any one wanting bankers' exchange is usually able to secure it at a low
price.

2. With regard to the second influence making for low exchange, sale of
American bonds or stocks abroad, no season can be set when the
influence is more likely to be operative than at any other, unless,
possibly, it be the Spring, when money rates are more apt to be low and
bond issues larger than at any other time of the year. No time,
however, can be definitely set--there are yea