n and a half.

In the first six months of the year Germany and Austria will have
suffered not less than three million casualties. Of course, more than
half these people are wounded, who may go back to the firing line. But
the three hundred thousand and more dead will never go back; and many
vitally wounded and many cripples will be hereafter useless in peace or
war; and the prisoners that are exchanged with France through Geneva are
under pledge and mutual government agreement not to take up arms again.

I have also more confidence in the Russian position, numbers, supplies,
and strategy than is generally possessed in America.

We hear in the press reports of generals at the head of the armies in
Russia and France. We do not hear of the wonderful younger generals that
war is developing, and who are coming forward more rapidly there than
from any similar developments under the bureaucracy of Germany.

The two greatest military strategists the war has developed are not in
Germany or England. They are in Russia and France, and their names have
not yet crossed the Atlantic in the press reports.

However long Germany may fight on, offensively or defensively, her
retreat must begin this year. Then the world will be increasingly
interested in the terms of peace.

Balfour, the English statesman, says privately, "I know the people look
for the dismemberment of Germany, and some look for her destruction, but
this is not the intelligent opinion or intelligent desire. Germany is an
indispensable part of the world's industrial, commercial, financial, and
political organization. To destroy Germany would be a world loss." The
opinion of eminent political and financial people in England is that
Germany can never repair the total damage she may inflict. So far as
England is concerned, next after the destruction of Germany's war-power,
giving insurance of a European peace, comes first the indemnification of
every financial loss that Belgium suffers. This is now estimated at from
$1,500,000,000 to $2,500,000,000.

What there will be left over in the way of Germany's ability to pay,
aside from the Kiel Canal, Alsace and Lorraine, and German Poland, is
problematical.

To have Germany able to pay even a part of the damage she is inflicting
upon the world, she must be put back upon her industrial feet.
Therefore, I have declared, when asked about this matter, that in the end
England would be found the best friend of Germany.