called
parties in embryo, awaiting the opportunity for free discussion in
the coining _Philippine Assembly_. [285] Present indications point to
the _Nationalists_ as the largest of these coming opposition parties,
its present programme being autonomy under American protection. The
majority of those who clamour for "independence" [I am not referring
to the masses, but to those who have thought the matter out in their
own fashion] do not really understand what they are asking for, for
it generally results from a close discussion of the subject that they
are, in fact, seeking autonomy _dependent_ on American protection,
with little idea of what the Powers understand by Protection. In
a conversation which I had with the leader of the Nationalists, I
inquired, "What do you understand by independence?" His reply was,
"Just a thread of connexion with the United States to keep us from
being the prey of other nations!" Other parties will, no doubt, be
formed; and there will probably be, for some time yet, a small group
of _Irreconcilables_ affiliated with those abroad who cannot return
home whilst they refuse to take the oath of allegiance prescribed in
the United States President's peace and amnesty proclamation, dated
July 4, 1902. The Irreconcilables claim real sovereign independence for
the Filipinos; they would wish the Americans to abandon the Islands as
completely as if they had never occupied them at all. It is doubtful
whether entire severance from American or European control would last
a year, because some other Power, Asiatic or European, would seize
the Colony. Sovereign independence would be but a fleeting vision
without a navy superior in all respects to that of any second-rate
naval Power, for if all the fighting-men of the Islands were armed to
the teeth they could not effectively resist a simultaneous bombardment
of their ports; nor could they, as inhabitants of an archipelago,
become united in action or opinion, because their inter-communication
would be cut off. When this is explained to them, there are those who
admit the insuperable difficulty, and suggest, as a compromise, that
America's position towards them should be merely that of the policeman,
standing by ready to interfere if danger threatens them! This is the
naive definition of the relation which they (the Irreconcilables)
term "Protection."

However, the cry for "independence" has considerably abated since the
Secretary of War, Mr. W. H. Taft, v