een completely gained by the arrangement then
effected. During the sixteen years which have elapsed since the treaty
was concluded, no serious difference has occurred between Brazil and the
Argentine Confederation, nor is any likely to occur so long as the
barrier of an independent state is interposed between them. It is only
during the last two years that serious discussions have arisen between
them, and these have originated in the fears of Brazil, lest the
successes of the Buenos Ayrean army, now before Monte Video, should be
such as to break down the barrier established by the Ponsonby treaty,
and again to bring the Buenos Ayreans on the frontiers of Rio Grande.
From apprehension of this event, the Brazilian Government has allowed
General Paz, with his military staff, to pass through its territory to
place himself at the head of the Correntino insurgents, who have risen
against Rosas, and made common cause with Monte Video; it has also
recalled Admiral Grenfell, its commander in the River Plate, as well as
its diplomatic agent at Monte Video, for engaging in an ill-timed
quarrel with the Monte Videan Government; and if the Buenos Ayrean army
should succeed in gaining possession of the city of Monte Video, it will
in all probability, whether backed or not by England and France, decide
to take part in the war, rather than allow General Rosas to succeed in
the designs which he now avows on the Republics of Uruguay and Paraguay,
the two bulwarks of the western provinces of the Brazilian empire.
Notwithstanding the recent victories of the Brazilian General, Baron
Caxias, over the rebels of Rio Grande do Sul, that province is still in
a very unsettled state--far too much so to be safely exposed to the
machinations of such dangerous neighbours as Generals Rosas and Oribe.
It may, therefore, be confidently expected, that if the great naval
powers do not interpose, the progress of events will again bring on a
war between Brazil, strengthened by the army of Uruguay, under General
Rivera, that of Corrientes under General Paz, and the forces of Paraguay
on one side; and Buenos Ayres on the other, backed by those other
provinces of the Argentine Confederation, which still follow the
fortunes of General Rosas.

What the result of such a war would be no one can predict, but its first
consequence would be another blockade of Buenos Ayres, by the Brazilian
fleet, its next the reinforcement of the garrison of Monte Video by a
detachm