bonds. When the price level is rising, the opposite conditions
prevail. But such adjustments proceed uncertainly and unevenly in
different industries, with much speculation in shifting from one type
of business to another, and with much accompanying miscalculation.

Sec. 14. #Tariff changes and business uncertainty.# Another variable
influence in American business has been the tariff. Every tariff
revision, whether the rates go upward or downward, shifts somewhat
the relative opportunities and profitableness of different industries.
Some of these call for far-reaching readjustments of investments and
of productive forces. Some persons gain and some lose by every such
change. It is observed that a reduction of tariff rates seems to have
a more disturbing effect upon business than does an increase. This
probably is because the industries favored by protective tariffs in
America are those most fully within the circle affected by crises;
whereas most of the consumers adversely affected by a rise of tariff
rates are outside the commercial circles where short-time credit
is common and where the rapid readjustment of investment leads to a
financial crisis. It never has been convincingly shown, however,
that there is any large measure of correspondence in time (not to say
causal relation) between tariff revisions and crises.[13]

Sec. 15. #Rhythmic changes in weather and in crops#. A psychological
movement, once started, accumulates force and momentum up to a certain
point where a reaction begins. This rhythmic movement as it appears
in the capitalization of enterprises is favored and magnified, we
have seen, by the wide use of credit and by the constantly changing
technical and physical conditions of industry. These call for constant
revaluations of the sources of incomes, thus destroying customary
and habitual valuations. But why should the cycle begin or end at one
point of time rather than at another; and what determines the length
of the cycle? Some of the new dynamic forces such as inventions and
growth of population are distributed pretty regularly along the line,
so that their influences are nearly equalized. But occasionally
some large impulse may serve to start a swing and if this impulse
is somewhat regularly repeated, it may serve to keep up the rhythmic
motion. True, the lack of coincidence in the impact of various
influences which occur accidentally, such as political changes, wars,
and the rapid opening of new r