Mexico, and hence to end it. While we laugh at the absurdity of
his premises, we can hardly find fault with his conclusion, and
hence it is not worth while to criticize any part of his argument.
Rather I think it well to let him make the most of his audacity in
the creation of convenient facts. The opinion seems to be universal
here that the Emperor is sincere in his declarations of intention
as to Mexico; indeed, that he has adopted the policy of making the
strongest possible bid for the friendship of the United States.
It is certainly easy to derive such an opinion from his speech,
and I am strongly inclined to believe it correct. Yet we cannot
forget the fact that in his speech of last year he used quite as
strong language as to the speedy termination of his Mexican
expedition. Hence I shall indulge in some doubt until I see the
actual development of his present plans. I have no idea that
Napoleon believes that Maximilian can remain long in Mexico after
the French troops are withdrawn; but it is very important for him,
in order to give some appearance of truth to his assumed grounds
of action, that Maximilian be allowed to stay there some time
without French aid. And for this reason he wants some assurance
of neutrality from the government of the United States. Prince
Napoleon and others with whom I have conversed express the decided
opinion that Maximilian will come away with Marshal Bazaine, in
spite of all the Emperor may say to induce him to try to stand
alone. This, I apprehend, will be the difficulty, and may cause
much delay, unless the United States kindly lend a helping hand.
Would it not be wise for us to abstain for a few months from all
interference, direct or indirect, and thus give Napoleon and
Maximilian time to carry out their farce? Mexico would thus be
rid of the French flag in the least possible time. If the French
troops come also, Juarez can easily dispose of Maximilian at any
time. If they succeed in getting the French troops to remain as
colonists, then the United States can easily find a good reason
for disposing of the whole matter, and Napoleon will not dare to
interfere. . . . An officer of the Emperor's household left here
about ten days ago with despatches for Mexico which, it is understood,
contained the Emperor's declaration to Maximilian of his intention
to recall his troops. This will give you some idea of the time
when the matter may be arranged if all works well."