ciple (enunciated in the preamble of the German Navy Law);
namely, to be sufficiently strong to make it _dangerous_ for your
enemy to attack. They must now, according to our "axiom," be so
strong as to make our defeat certain.

I am quite sure that the big armament people in Germany are very
grateful for the advice which Mr. Churchill and Lord Roberts thus
give to the nations of the world, and we may expect to see German
armaments so increased as to accord with the new principle.

And Lord Roberts is courageous enough to abide by the conclusion
which flows from the fundamental assumption of Liberals and
Conservatives alike, _i.e._, that trade and the means of livelihood
can be transferred by force. We have transferred it in the past.
"It is excellent policy; it is, or should be, the policy of every
nation prepared to play a great part in history." Such are Lord
Roberts' actual words. At least, they don't burke the issue.

The Germans will doubtless note the combination: be so strong as to
make victory certain, and strike when you have made it certain, and
they will then, in the light of this advice, be able to put the
right interpretation upon our endeavours to create a great
conscript force and our arrangements, which have been going on for
some years, to throw an expeditionary force on to the continent.

The outlook is not very pleasant, is it? And yet if you accept the
"axiom" that our Empire and our trade is dependent upon force and
can be advantageously attacked by a stronger power there is no
escape from the inevitable struggle--for the other "axiom" that
safety can be secured merely by being enormously stronger than your
rival is, as soon as it is tested by applying it to the two parties
to the conflict--and, of course, one has as much right to apply it
as the other--seen to be simply dangerous and muddle-headed
rubbish. Include the two parties in your "axiom" (as you must) and
it becomes impossible of application.

Now the whole problem sifts finally down to this one question: Is
the assumption made by Lord Roberts and implied by Mr. Churchill
concerning the relation of military force to trade and national
life well founded? If it is, conflict is inevitable. It is no good
crying "panic." If there is this enormous temptation pushing to ou