r each dog
to draw. After 41 days this will at least have been reduced to 280
pounds (by the consumption of provisions and fuel and by dispensing
with sundry articles of our equipment, such as sleeping-bags, tent,
etc., etc., which will have become superfluous). There remain, then,
56 pounds for each of the five dogs, if we draw nothing ourselves;
and should it be desirable, our equipment might be still further
diminished. With a burden of from 18 to 56 pounds apiece (the latter
would only be towards the end), the dogs would on an average be able to
do 13-4/5 miles a day, even if the snow-surface should become somewhat
more difficult. That is to say, we shall have gone 565 miles to the
south, or we shall be 18 1/2 miles past Cape Fligely, on June 1st,
with five dogs and nine days' provisions left. But it is probable,
in the first place, that we shall long before this have reached land;
and, secondly, so early as the first half of April the Austrians found
open water by Cape Fligely and abundance of birds. Consequently,
in May and June we should have no difficulty as regards food, not
to mention that it would be strange indeed if we had not before that
time met with a bear or a seal or some stray birds.

"That we should now be pretty safe I consider as certain, and we can
choose whichever route we please: either along the northwest coast
of Franz Josef Land, by Gillis Land towards Northeast Island and
Spitzbergen (and, should circumstances prove favorable, this would
decidedly be my choice), or we can go south through Austria Sound
towards the south coast of Franz Josef Land, and thence to Novaya
Zemlya or Spitzbergen, the latter by preference. We may, of course,
find Englishmen on Franz Josef Land, but that we must not reckon on.

"Such, then, is my calculation. Have I made it recklessly? No, I think
not. The only thing would be if during the latter part of the journey,
in May, we should find the surface like what we had here last spring,
at the end of May, and should be considerably delayed by it. But
this would only be towards the very end of our time, and at worst it
could not be entirely impassable. Besides, it would be strange if we
could not manage to average 11 1/2 miles a day during the whole of the
journey, with an average load for each dog of from 30 to 40 pounds--it
would not be more. However, if our calculations should prove faulty,
we can always, as aforesaid, turn back at any moment.

"What unfore