I confidently rely on your
well-known zeal and experience. The crisis is indeed a grave one. We
have as yet no certainty of any very material aid from France to enable
us to carry on the next campaign, which I have reason to know that Pitt
intends to prosecute with greater energy than ever. His plan is a
grand one, comprising an attack against Niagara, an invasion on the
whole line of Lakes George and Champlain, and a combined naval and
military expedition against Quebec. The capture of Louisburg and Forts
Frontenac and Duquesne last year have given the enemy the command both
of the upper and lower lines of water communication, and a great hold
over us on the north and west, whilst the support of a population of
nearly four hundred thousand in the English American states gives them
a formidable advantage in the south. Although some of the states are
not a little dissatisfied at the cost entailed on them both in men and
money, most of them are evidently ready to make any sacrifices required
of them. New France, on the other hand, gives to us but a population
of some sixty thousand to draw upon, and of those considered capable of
bearing arms we can reckon on only a small proportion as available.
This is a grave disadvantage indeed, where the necessity of carrying
all regular troops across the Atlantic makes both sides so largely
dependent on their colonial militia, whilst the great conference held
by the English with the Indians last autumn has deprived us of the aid
of many tribes formerly friendly to us. The situation, however, is not
without some favourable features. It is easy enough to sit down and
draw great plans, but quite another thing to carry them out within the
few months which our summer here affords, and in a country where the
distances are so great and the natural obstacles so many and so
serious. Amherst is still far from ready, and I doubt his being before
Ticonderoga much sooner than the end of July. Desertion, too, is
already rife among his troops, and I foresee that it will become still
more so. Bourlemaque will have some four thousand good effectives, so
that, apart from the possibility of our repeating the success we gained
last year, I think we shall not see Amherst on the St. Lawrence before
winter sets in again. The fate of this campaign will be decided, not
at Niagara or Ticonderoga, but at Quebec."

The baron had read so far with much interest, but calmly and quietly
enough. As he