, in furnishing
supplies to the royalists, who have, however, shown themselves much
too soon, both for their own interest and ours; and in nursing up
our own force to make it as considerable and as fit for action as
we can.

In the spring its employment must be regulated by the state of the
other two points. If Austria has made her peace (which, though
certainly not improbable, I do not however consider as the most
likely event), and if the royalists are crushed, our force can then
only be used in desultory expeditions to annoy the enemy, and
weaken his means of acting against us; for to make a serious
impression on France with sixty, or even eighty thousand men,
unsupported by any diversion, is impossible, and the attempt can
only lead to disaster, and to the loss of the only army we ever can
have during this war. This was our situation in 1798. We fought
manfully through it under much greater disadvantages than we should
now have to meet. The enemy was stronger and more abundant in
resources. We were weaker in force, and the extent of our means was
unknown even to ourselves.

If, on the contrary, the French are materially occupied either by
Austria, or by royalists, or still better if by both, we may then
choose our own point of attack; our fleet will threaten the whole
coast from Cadiz to the Texel and Delfzuyl, and nothing but a
course of ill luck, equal to that of this year, can deprive us of
the benefit of a fortnight or three weeks' start in whatever point
we really attack.

I should be sorry that any degree even of private blame in people's
minds should attach on the Duke of York, who has, I really believe,
had no other fault on this occasion than that of following, perhaps
too implicitly, the advice of those whose advice he was desired to
follow. In many things he has certainly done extremely well.

The business of the Union is going on well, and I trust rapidly
approaching to a conclusion. Even if it were possible that we
should again fail next year, still I should regard the ultimate
success of the measure as certain.

I have been ruminating on some ecclesiastical projects, but I do
not know whether I shall be able to bring them to bear, nor do I
yet possess all the knowledge of the actual state of things which
is ne