rated by locks or gates, and, I presume, the question of earthquakes
or earth movements has not been raised in any of the reports which have
been made regarding this undertaking. Earthquakes formerly were quite
frequent in New England, and they extended to New York during the early
years of our history, and for a time Boston and Newbury, Mass.,
Deerfield, N.H., and particularly East Haddam, Conn., were the centers
of seismic activity, which by inference might be used as an argument
against our navy-yards at Portsmouth, N.H., and Charlestown, Mass., our
torpedo station at Newport, or the fortifications at Willets Point. The
earthquake which destroyed Lisbon in 1755 might with equal propriety be
used as an argument against the building of the extensive docks and
fortifications at Gibraltar, but no one, I think, has ever questioned
the solidity of the Rock.

Seismology is a very complex branch of geologic inquiry and it is a
subject regarding which very little of determining value is known.
Theories have been advanced that under certain geological conditions
earth movements would be comparatively infrequent, if not impossible.
Whether such conditions exist at Panama would have to be determined by
the investigations of qualified experts. It would seem, however, from
such data as are available, that the local conditions are decidedly
favorable to a comparative immunity of this region from serious seismic
shocks, at least such as would do great and general damage. Nor can it
be argued that the locks and dams would be exposed to special risk. The
earthquake of 1882 did more or less damage, but the reports are of a
very fragmentary character. Newspaper reports in matters of this kind
have very small value. Injury was done to the railway, but not of very
serious consequence.

If the risk exists, it would affect equally a sea-level canal, in that
it would threaten the tidal lock, the dam at Gamboa, and the excavation
through Culebra cut. Very little is known regarding earthquake motions,
and there are very few seismic elements which are really calculable in
conformity to a mathematical theory of probability. It is a subject
which has not received the attention in this country of which it is
deserving, but enough of seismic motion is known to warrant the
conclusion that the Senate committee of 1902 was, in all human
probability, entirely correct when it made light of the danger of the
probability of seismic shocks at Panama.

I