.

In a Papal or Tuscan lottery there are ninety numbers, from one up to
ninety, and of these numbers, five are drawn at each drawing. You may,
therefore, stake your money on any one or two or three or four or five of
the ninety numbers being drawn, which is termed playing at the "eletto,"
"ambo," "terno," "quaterno," and "tombola" respectively, or you may
finally play "al estratto," that is, you may not only speculate on the
particular numbers drawn, but on the order in which they may happen to be
drawn. Practically, people rarely play upon any except the three first-
named chances, and they will be sufficient for my explanation. Now a
very simple arithmetical calculation will show you, that the chances
against your naming one number out of the five drawn is eighteen to one;
against your predicting two, four hundred to one; and against your
hitting on three, nearly twelve thousand to one. Supposing, therefore,
the game was played with ordinary fairness, and even as much as 25 per
cent. were deducted for profit and working expenses off the winnings, you
ought, if you staked a scudo, for instance, and won an "eletto," "ambo"
or "terno," to win in round numbers 14, 300, and 9000 scudi respectively.
If in reality you did win (a very great "if" indeed), you would not be
paid in these instances more than 4, 25 and 3600 scudi. In fact, if ever
there was invented in this world a game, of which the old saying, "Heads
I win, and tails you lose" held true, it would be of the Papal Lottery.
If the numbers you back do not happen to turn up, you lose the whole of
your stake; if they do, you are docked of more than seventy-five per
cent. of your winnings. For my part, I would sooner play at thimble-rig
on Epsom Downs, or dominoes with Greek merchants, or at "three-cards"
with a casual and communicative fellow-passenger of sporting cast: I
should infallibly be legged, but I should hardly be plundered so
ruthlessly or remorselessly. Still the Vatican, like all gentlemen who
play with loaded dice or marked cards, may have a run of luck against it.
Spiritual infallibility itself cannot determine whether a halfpenny
tossed into the air will come down man or woman, and the law of chances
cannot be regulated by a _motu proprio_. It is possible, though not
probable, that on any one occasion the majority of the gamblers might
stake their money fortuitously on one series of numbers, and if that
series did happen to be drawn, then the lo