ill, in part, be
done away, when new channels of conveyance are found out. It will
nevertheless operate in causing some diminution, as circuitous
channels render goods more difficult to be introduced, and
consequently dearer to the consumers.

The second cause appears to have been, the uncertainty of our
merchants where to send the goods, and who to trust, as the fear of the
extension of French power took away confidence, and produced a sort
of irresolution, which is always hurtful to business.

The third cause of the diminution of trade, no doubt, arose from the
cessation of that alarm about property, that has been described as
having occasioned so much to be sent from the continent to England.
In other words, it is the return of the pendulum which had vibrated,

---
{163} This is a sort of paradox: when money became scarce, the
nation bought nearly as much as ever, but sold less. This is not the
case with individuals, and, at first sight, does not appear natural.
-=-

[end of page #201]

through a temporary impulse, beyond the natural perpendicular. Had
there been no revolution in France, and had it not been conducted on
the principles it was, our trade could not have augmented so fast as it
did; but a falling off of fifteen millions in one year is too much to be
ascribed to that cause alone. An examination of the branches that did
fall off will elucidate this.

The commerce with the United States of America is one of those that
has fallen off, and is the only one that does not appear to be directly
connected with these causes. There are some reasons, however, for
thinking that it had an indirect connection with them.

Whatever interrupts our connection with the continent of Europe, or
renders it unsafe, has, in some degree, the same effect with a
stagnation of credit at home. This has taken place; and as it of course
affected every branch of trade, that with America felt the blow
amongst the rest, and, indeed, more than in proportion; for, as there is
no course of exchange with any town in America, and as the credits
there are long, the exportation to that country suffers in a particular
manner when there is any heaviness in the money market here. Thus it
was that, in 1772, the American exports suffered a diminution of two
millions from the stagnation; and, in 1793, of rather more than half a
million. In the former case, the American trade seems alone almost to
have suffered, and, even in the latter case, i