their
part of the contract. We know that some 80,000 veteran Indian troops
have arrived from France, as well as other large reinforcements from
India. It is unlikely that these will all proceed up the Tigris River,
because sufficient troops are already there who are restricted to a
narrow front, owing to the salt marshes between the bend of the river
and the Persian mountains. Two other routes are available, the
Shat-el-Hai from Nasiriyeh to relieve the garrison at Kut-el-Amara from
the south, and the Euphrates River, to attack Bagdad from the southwest,
while the Russian flying wing at Kermanshah threatens it from the
northeast. The Turkish report of heavy fighting at Nasiriyeh would
indicate that one or both of these routes were being taken. Athens
reports that Bagdad is about to fall. As it falls, a British flotilla
will ascend the Euphrates and make direct for Aleppo. The British army
from Kut-el-Amara and the Russians from Kermanshah will, after the fall
of Bagdad--which is a foregone conclusion--ascend the Tigris River to
Mosul, where they may be expected to get in touch with the other Russian
flying wing from the Lake Urumia district. The combined force will then
be in a position to force a junction with the Grand Duke's left wing,
and then continue their advance on Aleppo.

[Sidenote: Turkish army might retire to defend the Taurus passage.]

Should the main army of the Grand Duke, as reported, converge on the
Gulf of Alexandretta with intent to destroy the Turkish southern army,
then the latter would be in a very dangerous position, because their
northern army being, as yet, without a base or organization, is not in a
position to take the offensive to assist them. If, on the other hand,
the Turkish army of the south declines battle at Aleppo and retires to
defend the Taurus passage, after abandoning half their Empire to the
Allies, the latter will, if they have not previously anticipated it,
have a difficult problem to solve as to how they are going to get their
large forces in the south over the Taurus range to assist the Grand Duke
in the final struggle. The forcing of the Taurus passage will mean
fighting on a narrow front and will take time.

So far this campaign had been conducted as one of India's little wars,
which come as regularly as intermittent fever.

[Sidenote: The Russians enter Armenia and later withdraw.]

When Turkey entered the war she reckoned that Russia was so busy on the
German and Aus