events, a trifling accident will
sometimes determine a career.

Noteworthiness and success may be regarded statistically as the
outcome of ability and environment and of nothing else, because the
effects of chance tend to be eliminated by statistical treatment. The
question then becomes, How far may noteworthiness be accepted as a
statistical measure of ability?

Ability and environment are each composed of many elements that
differ greatly in character. Ability may be especially strong in
particular directions as in administration, art, scholarship, or
science; it is, nevertheless, so adaptive that an able man has often
found his way to the front under more than one great change of
circumstance. The force that impels towards noteworthy deeds is an
innate disposition in some men, depending less on circumstances than
in others. They are like ships that carry an auxiliary steam-power,
capable of moving in a dead calm and against adverse winds. Others
are like the ordinary sailing ships of the present day--they are
stationary in a calm, but can make some way towards their destination
under almost any wind. Without a stimulus of some kind these men are
idle, but almost any kind of stimulus suffices to set them in action.
Others, again, are like Arab dhows, that do little more than drift
before the monsoon or other wind; but then they go fast.

Environment is a more difficult topic to deal with, because
conditions that are helpful to success in one pursuit may be
detrimental in another. High social rank and wealth conduce to
success in political life, but their distractions and claims clash
with quiet investigation. Successes are of the most varied
descriptions, but those registered in this book are confined to such
as are reputed honourable, and are not obviously due to favour.

In attacking the problem it therefore becomes necessary to fix the
attention, in the first instance, upon the members of some one large,
special profession, as upon artists, leaders in commerce,
investigators, scholars, warriors, and so forth, then to divide these
into subclasses, until more appears to be lost through paucity of
material than is gained through its increasing homogeneity.

Whatever group be selected, both ability and environment must be
rated according to the requirements of that group. It then becomes
possible, and it is not difficult, to roughly array individuals under
each of these two heads successively, and to label every