pose that, even with such
a settlement, any important part of Germany's payments can be
anticipated by a loan. Any small loan that can be raised will be
required for Germany herself, to put her on her legs again, and enable
her to make the necessary annual payments.

THE OUTLOOK FOR NATIONAL FINANCE

BY SIR JOSIAH STAMP, K.B.E., D.SC.

Assistant Secretary Board of Inland Revenue, 1916-19. Member of Royal
Commission on Income Tax, 1919.

Sir Josiah Stamp said:--In discussing the problem of National Finance we
have to decide which problem we mean, viz., the "short period" or the
"long period," for there are distinctly two issues. I can, perhaps,
illustrate it best by the analogy of the household in which the chief
earner or the head of the family has been stricken down by illness. It
may be that a heavy doctor's bill or surgeon's fee has to be met, and
that this represents a serious burden and involves the strictest economy
for a year or two; that all members of the household forgo some
luxuries, and that there is a cessation of saving and perhaps a "cut"
into some past accumulations. But once these heroic measures have been
taken and the burden lifted, and the chief earner resumes his
occupation, things proceed on the same scale and plan as before. It may
be, however, that the illness or operation permanently impairs his
earning power, and that the changes which have to be made must be more
drastic and permanent. Then perhaps would come an alteration of the
whole ground plan of the life of that family, the removal to a smaller
house with lower standing charges and a changed standard of living. What
I call the "short period" problem involves a view only of the current
year and the immediate future for the purpose of ascertaining whether we
can make ends meet by temporary self-denial. What I term the "long
distance" problem involves an examination of the whole scale upon which
our future outlay is conditioned for us.

The limit of further economies on the lines of the "Geddes' cut" that
can become effective in 1923, would seem to be some 50 or 60 millions,
because every 10 per cent. in economy represents a much more drastic and
difficult task than the preceding, and it cuts more deeply into your
essential national services. On the other side of the account one sees
the probable revenue diminish to an almost similar extent, having regard
to the effect of reductions in the rate of tax and the depression in
trad