Segur, and the others, are high
aristocrats. The Commons having verified their powers, a motion was
made the day before yesterday, to declare themselves constituted, and to
proceed to business. I left them at two o'clock yesterday; the debates
not then finished. They differed only about forms of expression, but
agreed in the substance, and probably decided yesterday, or will decide
to-day. Their next move, I fancy, will be to suppress all taxes, and
instantly re-establish them till the end of their session, in order
to prevent a premature dissolution: and then they will go to work on
a declaration of rights and a constitution. The _Noblesse_, I suppose,
will be employed altogether in counter operations; the Clergy, that is
to say, the higher Clergy, and such of the _Cures_ as they can bring
over to their side, will be waiting and watching, merely to keep
themselves in their saddles. Their deportment, hitherto, is that of
meekness and cunning. The fate of the nation depends on the conduct of
the King and his ministers. Were they to side openly with the Commons,
the revolution would be completed without a convulsion, by the
establishment of a constitution, tolerably free, and in which the
distinction of Noble and Commoner would be suppressed. But this is
scarcely possible. The King is honest, and wishes the good of his
people; but the expediency of an hereditary aristocracy is too difficult
a question for him. On the contrary, his prejudices, his habits, and his
connections decide him in his heart to support it. Should they decide
openly for the _Noblesse_, the Commons, after suppressing taxes,
and finishing their declaration of rights, would probably go home;
a bankruptcy takes place in the instant, Mr. Necker must go out, a
resistance to the tax-gatherers follows, and probably a civil war. These
consequences are too evident and violent, to render this issue likely.
Though the Queen and Princes are infatuated enough to hazard it, the
party in the ministry would not. Something, therefore, like what I
hinted in my letter of May the 12th, is still the most likely to take
place. While the Commons, either with or without their friends of the
other two Houses, shall be employed in framing a constitution, perhaps
the government may set the other two Houses to work on the same subject:
and when the three schemes shall be ready, joint committees may be
negotiated, to compare them together, to see in what parts they agree;
and prob