sible it was not at all probable. There was no real opportunity.
The risk and the subsequent difficulties would be very great; there was
not a particle of positive evidence that a murder had occurred; and the
conduct of Hurst in immediately leaving the house in possession of the
servants is quite inconsistent with the supposition that there was a
body concealed in it. So that, while it is almost impossible to
believe that John Bellingham left the house of his own accord, it is
equally difficult to believe that he did not leave it.

"But there is a third possibility, which, strange to say, no one seems
to have suggested. Supposing that the visitor was not John Bellingham
at all, but some one who was impersonating him? That would dispose of
the difficulties completely. The strange disappearance ceases to be
strange, for a personator would necessarily make off before Mr. Hurst
should arrive and discover the imposture. But if we accept this
supposition, we raise two further questions: 'Who was the personator?'
and 'What was the object of the personation?'

"Now, the personator was clearly not Hurst himself, for he would have
been recognized by his housemaid; he was therefore either Godfrey
Bellingham or Mr. Jellicoe or some other person; and as no other person
was mentioned in the newspaper reports I confined my speculations to
these two.

"And, first, as to Godfrey Bellingham. It did not appear whether he
was or was not known to the housemaid, so I assumed--wrongly, as it
turns out--that he was not. Then he might have been the personator.
But why should he have personated his brother? He could not have
already committed the murder. There had not been time enough. He
would have had to leave Woodford before John Bellingham had set out for
Charing Cross. And even if he had committed the murder, he would have
no object in raising this commotion. His cue would have been to remain
quiet and know nothing. The probabilities were all against the
personator being Godfrey Bellingham.

"Then could it be Mr. Jellicoe? The answer to this question is
contained in the answer to the further question: 'What could have been
the object of the personation?'

"What motive could this unknown person have had in appearing,
announcing himself as John Bellingham, and forthwith vanishing? There
could only have been one motive: that, namely, of fixing the date of
John Bellingham's disappearance--of furnishing a definite moment at