* * * * *

_July, 1915._ I think that the firm tone of the President's note
(of June 9, 1915) will make the Germans climb down. There seems a
general disposition to be pleased with the note and an expectation
that matters can be arranged. The great danger is that the
Germans may again get the idea that we do not dare to declare
war. In such case they will again become difficult to handle.

Zimmermann and von Jagow are both quite pleased with the tone of
the note.

They both talk now of keeping Belgium, the excuse being that the
Belgians hate the Germans so that if Belgium again became
independent it would be only an English outpost. Meyer Gerhard,
Bernstorff's special envoy, has arrived and has broken into print
over the sentiment in America. I am afraid he makes it too
peaceful, and, therefore, the Germans will be encouraged to
despise America.

While the authorities here think the idea of freedom of the seas
good, they think the idea of freedom of land too vague. They want
to know exactly what it means and say the seas should be free
because they belong to no one, but that land is the private
property of various nations. They compare the situation to a city
street, where every one is interested in keeping the streets free
but would resent a proposal that private houses also should be
made common meeting ground if not common property. Unfortunately
for Germany and the world, the German armies are winning and this
will be considered a complete vindication of the military and
caste system and everything which now exists. As Cleveland said,
we are confronted by a condition, not a theory. _Germany, unless
beaten, will never directly or indirectly agree to any freedom of
land or disarmament proposal._

* * * * *

The Emperor probably will see me soon. He has been rabid on the
export of arms from the United States to the Allies, but like all
Germans, when they see we cannot be scared into a change of
policy, he is making a nice recovery.

Was told by a friend at the Foreign Office that the German note
would contain a proposition that regular passenger ships should
not be torpedoed without notice, but must carry no cargo other
than passengers' baggage. Have heard Marine Department rather
opposes this, but may favor proposition as to ships inspected and
certified to carry no arms or ammunition. No note until after
July fourth, they say at Foreign Office, on t